Discussion: A large complex of thunderstorms will approach Georgia from the west and northwest this evening. Uncertainty remains regarding how well these thunderstorms will hold together as they approach Georgia this evening. If the thunderstorms are able to retain their intensity, severe weather is possible.
WHERE: The first areas to potentially be affected by these thunderstorms will be western portions of the state. This complex will continue to push off to the southeast tonight into early Friday morning.
WHAT: The primary threats with these thunderstorms will be damaging winds in excess of 60 mph and frequent lightning. Brief heavy rainfall may also occur as the storms push through.
There is also a possibility that strong winds may occur outside of the immediate thunderstorm area, if a wake low situation forms. If this happens, areas to the north of the most intense thunderstorm activity could experience gusty winds as well. This possibility is less certain.
WHEN: The current thinking is that the thunderstorm complex will enter parts of Georgia around 7 pm and move quickly towards the southeast through early Friday morning. The complex of thunderstorms will likely weaken as it pushes through middle Georgia.
Winds: Damaging winds in excess of 60 mph will be the primary threat with this thunderstorm complex.
Rainfall: Brief heavy rainfall is expected along the leading edge of the thunderstorms. Due to the quick movement of these thunderstorms, significant flooding issues are not anticipated. Rainfall totals will generally be less than 1 inch.
CONFIDENCE: Overall confidence in the evolution of this event is low-to-medium. Confidence on timing is medium, while confidence in thunderstorm intensity level remains low. There is a higher confidence level that western counties will experience impacts from strong thunderstorm winds, with lower confidence heading east.